Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
